March 23, 2011

Did Penn State oversign for 2011? Kinda.

Math. While it's a tough concept for those in SEC country, up here in the north it doesn't seem like all that much work to, you know, count. And that's all it took to figure out that Penn State appeared to have oversigned for the class of 2011 by two scholarships. But as I'll explain in this post, the Nittany Lions coaching staff did not, in fact, do anything outside of the Big Ten's oversigning regulations.

You can check out the full Penn State 2011 spring roster, with scholarships denoted for both current players and incoming freshmen. You see that number below the scholarship column? Yup, that's an 87. The trouble with that is there's a pesky little rule in college football nowadays--well, for the last 17 years, but who's counting?--that a team can only maintain 85 scholarship football players on the roster.

So, did Penn State oversign heading into 2011? It looked like it at first, and while the coaching staff must eventually drop two scholarship players, Penn State did nothing outside the rules when signing this year's freshman class. Jeff was diligent enough to sort through the roster and scholarships, so I don't want to steal his fire on the issue. If it weren't for his work, I'm not sure we'd be talking about this right now. So kudos, Jeff.

So why isn't this oversigning?

After some, but not much digging, I found this great explanation by Chad Hawley, Associate Commissioner of the Big 10 Conference, who spoke with Oversigning.com about the Big Ten's rules governing scholarship numbers:
As outlined in step 1, the Big 10 limitation is triggered by the issuance of an offer, not by the acceptance on the part of the prospect. Therefore, Big 10 schools are required to establish a budget number for how many OFFERS they can give with an exception of no more than 3 over what they have room for under the 85 limit at any one time. Mr. Hawley notes that several institutions overoffered, but as of right now there is only 1 institution that is oversigned. Therefore, despite having the option to oversign by 3, of the 12 member institutions, only 1 has oversigned.

In reading between the lines just a little here (we should probably ask a follow up question on this), it appears that the number of offers a Big 10 institution can issue is controlled by the conference office. Step 2 indicates that there is a little bit of wiggle room in total number of overoffers, but that there can be no more than 3 at one time. It would be interesting to see just how many are given out over the course of a recruiting class. However, given that you can only have 3 over the budget number at a time and that you would have to wait until a recruit turns the offer down to issue a replacement, it's hard to imagine that schools would be offering way more than they have room for under the 85 limit.
So not only did Penn State NOT oversign this year, but Hawley also gave all you Penn State recruiting followers (and especially you recruiting bashers) out there very clearly defined explanations why Penn State and other Big Ten institutions appear to recruit less forcefully than schools down south. But that story if for an entirely different day and post. For now, let's just focus on what this means for the current roster.

No matter what happens, oversigning or not, Penn State must eliminate two scholarships from the roster between now and the cutoff point this summer.

That cutoff for whittling down the number to 85 is the end of June, so by July 1, Penn State must have no more than 85. If you don't believe that Penn State has a very good shot as naturally losing two scholarship players by then, you don't know college football. Jeff pointed out to me this morning that it's common for someone like a disgruntled lineman to leave, or a not-yet-ready freshman to take a greyshirt (not enroll until the following spring).

2010 Penn State vs Youngstown State-77
Garry Gilliam (89) is safe atop the TE chart after,
but Rob Bolden (1) has left his scholarship/roster
spot open for debate this spring.
(Photo: LBU/Mike)
So who's on the chopping block?

Specific to Penn State in 2011, there is the quarterback battle, injuries at tight end, and the almost annual departure of a lineman somewhere. Those are the two positions that come to mind first when pondering potential departures. By the time spring practice is complete later next month, the quarterback battle will have progressed enough for a likely decision by one of the four contenders--Paul Jones, Rob Bolden, Kevin Newsome, Matt McGloin--to step aside and transfer.

At tight end, there is the glaring issue with Andrew Szczerba. His back injury kept him out all last season, and it wasn't all that much better as far as anyone has heard this calendar year. With Garry Gilliam and Kevin Haplea now more experienced, and a few more young sprouts ready to add depth, there is a big ole' target on Szczerba's back. It's a shame, too, because he really is a player I want to see in a big game situation.

Regardless, someone (or two) has to go.

But that's why we have spring practice, for all that to work itself out naturally.

So here is the rundown of who is on scholarship right now, and who will be by the time the freshman class enrolls this summer...

FirstLastPos.El.
AnthonyAlosiOLFR
AdrianAmosSafFR
DeionBarnesDEFR
BillBeltonWRFR
KyleCarterTEFR
MilesDieffenbachCFR
SamFickenKFR
LukeGrahamDTFR
EvanHailesDTFR
MikeHullLBFR
PaulJonesQBFR
AlexKenneyDBFR
JordanKernerDEFR
BenKlineLBFR
KhamroneKolbOLFR
AngeloMangiroOLFR
AlexMateasOLFR
RyanNowickiOLFR
ShawnOakmanDEFR
ShyquawnPulliumCBFR
TomRickettsOLFR
AllenRobinsonWRFR
DonovanSmithOLFR
MattZanellatoWRFR
AnthonyZettelDTFR
ZachZwinakFBFR
MarkArcidiaconoGSO
BradBarsDESO
KyleBaublitzDESO
RobBoldenQBSO
NateCadoganGSO
GlennCarsonLBSO
CurtisDukesTBSO
AnthonyFeraPKSO
FrankFigueroaGSO
KhairiForttLBSO
GarryGilliamTESO
AdamGressG/TSO
KevinHapleaTESO
TyHowleCSO
DaQuanJonesDLSO
ShawneyKerseyWRSO
ChristianKuntzWRSO
BrandonMoseby-FelderWRSO
StephenObeng-AgyapongSafSO
C.J.OlaniyanDESO
SilasReddTBSO
DakotaRoyerLBSO
EricShriveT/GSO
DerrickThomasCBSO
JohnUrschelGSO
MikeWallaceCBSO
MalcolmWillisSafSO
JustinBrownWRJR
CurtisDrakeWRJR
MikeFarrellTJR
JordanHillDLJR
GeraldHodgesLBJR
PeteMassaroDEJR
MichaelMautiLBJR
MatthewMcGloinQBJR
StephonMorrisCBJR
KevinNewsomeQBJR
DevonSmithWRJR
MattStankiewitchCJR
SeanStanleyDEJR
JamesTerryDTJR
BrandonWareDTJR
MichaelYancichLBJR
MichaelZordichRBJR
DrewAstorinoSafSR
QuinnBarhamTSR
BrandonBeachumRBSR
JackCrawfordDESR
StephfonGreenTBSR
EricLatimoreDESR
D' AntonLynnCBSR
DerekMoyeWRSR
ChimaOkoliTSR
DeOn'taePannellT/GSR
ChazPowellCBSR
DevonStillDTSR
NathanStuparLBSR
JoeSuheyRBSR
NickSukaySafSR
AndrewSzczerbaTESR
JohnnieTroutmanGSR


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11 comments:

  1. I'm also lending my services for winning lottery numbers and relationship advice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here's a free one: She's cheating on you with the neighbor with the yappy dog.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @scrappled - the MegaMillions is in the 300MM range. Any # suggestions?

    Like scrappled and Mike said, I like Bolden and Sczerba for the spots. Should Bolden somehow stay (which would really take a naming of a starter at the end of spring, something that won't happen), maybe an aging lineman.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Every few months, we get a report on how Sczcerba is close to returning. He never does. I don't think his back is going to hold up, which sucks because I was hoping he'd get a chance to start for a year or two.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Having back problems myself, I can tell you that you certainly don't want to mess with it. He's gonna risk serious, life altering injury for what? One more year in college ball? Hang up the cleats and coach rather than chance being hurt for the rest of your life.

    I'm sad to see him miss his chance, but the cupboard is far from bare. Gilliam, Haplea, Cadogan (if necessary, though with his weight up to 286, I'd bet he's back on the line), and some others could be solid TEs.

    Add to that the two solid looking TEs we're looking at in the class of '12, and it should be a position of strength for 3-5 years, and beyond.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Right. He's had a few surgeries already. Why bother at this point?

    I think Bolden is so gone the minute spring semester is over. As I've mentioned in the comments at BSD, Paterno isn't going to name a starter after spring practice (and has no real reason to do so).

    So it's going to be up to Paul Jones to save us from the Red Menace.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Remember the royal freakout after last year's Blue-White Game? Paul Jones was God. Oh, how little could we foresee....

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  8. Never would I have expected McGloin to become the No. 1/2 by the season, though. Sad.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Nobody did, and that's just the most recent example of why the Blue/White game is useless for anything more than a pleasant spring diversion and a reminder that football exists. Extrapolating any information from that game is a mistake made every single year. Hell, Sczcerba had what, 10 catches that one year, and I don't think he's ever caught a pass in a real game.

    This year's game will be especially annoying given the QB situation.

    ReplyDelete
  10. That's why I'm rooting for the Garrett Venuto Show, now featuring Shane McGregor!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hopefully one of the cut scholarships will be McGloin but for some reason I do not see that happening.

    ReplyDelete

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