Number Crunching: 2009's Biggest Over/Underachievers

Did the national champion Crimson Tide produce as many draft picks as they should have in 2010? O.M. Leung takes a look in today's breakdown of the NFL Draft.

A few days ago, a Linebacker-U.com reader pitched us his analysis of the NFL Draft, and how it could be used to determine College Football's most underachieving and overachieving teams in 2009. Of course, it was really cool stuff, or else you wouldn't be reading about it right now. Without further delay, in our first post of its kind here at Linebacker-U.com, we give you a reader-contributed post...

Now that the NFL draft is over, I crunched some numbers for fun to see how the PROs regarded the development of their “farm teams” – the colleges, versus the final polls, and versus the colleges' 2006 recruiting rankings.

For the Draft Position Rankings: I assigned 255 points for the first overall pick, 254 points for the second overall pick, and so on. Number 255, Mr. Irrelevant, would therefore get 1 point. Just to re-enforce number 255’s irrelevancy, I also assigned 1 point to each of almost 300 undrafted free agents who had been signed for rookie camps. I totaled the points and ranked the 109 colleges with draftees.

For the Draft Round Points: Rank by Round Points: A 1st Rounder gets 7 points, 2nd Rounder gets 6 points … 7th Rounder gets 1 point.

For poll ranking: I used the average rank from the final AP and Coaches’ Polls for the 39 teams that received votes, and used the CBS.com poll for teams beyond the 39.

Position Pts Rnk	Position Pts	College		Round Pts Rnk	Round Pts	College
1	1738	Florida		1	51	Florida
2	1345	Oklahoma		2	38	Oklahoma
3	1135	Texas		3	33	Texas
4	1111	USC		4	33	Alabama
5	1101	Alabama		5	32	USC
6	998	Tennessee		6	30	Tennessee
7	956	Iowa		7	28	Iowa
8	760	South Florida		8	23	Penn St
9	759	LSU		9	22	LSU
10	758	Utah		10	22	Utah
11	740	Penn St		11	21	South Florida
12	727	Georgia Tech		12	21	Georgia Tech
13	625	Clemson		13	18	Clemson
14	607	Oklahoma St		14	18	Oklahoma St
15	604	Mississippi		15	16	Mississippi
16	573	Virginia Tech		16	16	Notre Dame
17	554	Notre Dame		17	16	TCU
18	549	Oregon		18	15	Virginia Tech
19	529	Illinois		19	15	Oregon
20	521	TCU		20	15	California
21	503	California		21	15	Rutgers
22	493	Rutgers		22	14	Illinois
23	491	Nebraska		23	14	Nebraska
24	464	Miami (Fla.)		24	14	Miami (Fla.)
25	441	Kentucky		25	14	Georgia

(Tie-break by Draft Position Points)

If we rank the colleges by taking the average of the final 2009 AP and Coaches Polls, and subtract from that rank the Draft-Position-Rank, then we have:

Polls-Draft Differential
Avg Poll Rnk	College	Draft Position Rk	Differential
1	Alabama	5	4
2	Texas	3	1
3	Florida	1	-2
4	Boise St	52	48
5	Ohio St	62	57
6	TCU	20	14
7	Iowa	7	0
8	Cincinnati	51	43
9	Penn St	11	2
10	Virginia Tech	16	6
11	Oregon	18	7
12	BYU	67	55
13	Georgia Tech	12	-1
14	Nebraska	23	9
15	Pittsburgh	82	67
16	Wisconsin	37	21
17	LSU	9	-8
18	Utah	10	-8
19	Miami (Fla.)	24	5
20	Mississippi	15	-5
21	USC	4	-17
22	Texas Tech	94	72
23	Central Michigan	136	113
24	West Virginia	102	78
25	Clemson	13	-12
26	Oregon St	103	77
27	Navy	107	80
28	Oklahoma	2	-26
29	Oklahoma St	14	-15
30	Stanford	50	20
31	Auburn	32	1
32	Georgia	27	-5
33	Rutgers	22	-11
34	Arizona	29	-5
35	Middle Tenn	97	62
36	Florida St	33	-3
37	Connecticut	66	29
38	Arkansas	77	39
39	Air Force	107	68

One can argue that the colleges with differential close to zero did as well as they should based on talent level as judged by the NFL draft, whereas the colleges with high positive differential overachieved and those with high negatives underachieved in general.

The overachievers in 2009 appeared to be:

Central Michigan, Navy, Air Force, Middle Tenn, BYU, Boise St, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Stanford, TCU

The biggest underachievers in 2009 appeared to be:

Oklahoma, USC, LSU

In evaluating the overachievers and underachievers, obviously perceived recruiting success (or lack of) should be taken into consideration. I looked up Scout.com’s 2006 recruiting ranking, then calculated several rank differentials and came up with a few best and worst lists:

Polls-Draft-Recruiting Breakdown
Good Drafts, Low '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class	Bad Drafts, Good '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class
Louisiana Tech	(4-8)	No. 94	Texas A&M	(6-7)	No. 21
Arkansas St	(4-8)	No. 116	Pittsburgh	(10-3)	No. 11
TCU	(12-1)	No. 73	Oregon St	(8-5)	No. 41
Fresno St	(8-5)	No. 96	Michigan St	(6-7)	No. 43
Utah	(10-3)	No. 60	Ohio St	(11-2)	No. 13
South Florida	(8-5)	No. 56	Arkansas	(8-5)	No. 30
Northwestern	(8-5)	No. 71	West Virginia	(8-5)	No. 56
Rutgers	(9-4)	No. 63	North Carolina St	(5-7)	No. 42
Indiana	(4-8)	No. 79	Iowa St	(7-6)	No. 59
Ohio	(9-5)	No. 103	Boston College	(8-5)	No. 44
Good Poll Finish, Low Draft Rank	2010 Record		Bad Poll Finish, High Draft Rank	2010 Record
West Virginia	(8-5)		Illinois	(3-9)
Oregon St	(8-5)		Maryland	(2-10)
Pittsburgh	(10-3)		Louisiana Tech	(4-8)
Middle Tennessee	(10-3)		Vanderbilt	(2-10)
Ohio St	(11-2)		Michigan	(5-7)
BYU	(11-2)		Notre Dame	(6-6)
Boise St	(14-0)		Syracuse	(4-8)
Houston	(10-4)		Washington	(5-7)
Temple	(9-4)		Arkansas St	(4-8)
Central Michigan	(12-2)		Arizona St	(4-8)
Best Poll Finishes, low '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class	Worst Poll Finishes, high '06 recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class
Middle Tennessee	(10-4)	No. 111	Maryland	(2-10)	No. 27
Central Michigan	(12-2)	No. 99	Michigan	(5-7)	No. 9
Boise St	(14-0)	No. 78	Illinois	(3-9)	No. 28
TCU	(12-1)	No. 73	Notre Dame	(6-6)	No. 5
Cincinnati	(12-1)	No. 70	Vanderbilt	(2-10)	No. 61
Ohio	(9-5)	No. 103	Arizona St	(4-8)	No. 32
SMU	(8-5)	No. 91	Texas A&M	(6-7)	No. 21
Utah	(10-3)	No. 60	North Carolina St	(5-7)	No. 42
Oregon	(10-3)	No. 52	Washington	(5-7)	No. 35
Troy	(9-4)	No. 89	Syracuse	(4-8)	No. 51

Here's the final breakdown of the data we've presented in this analysis:

Total Draft Pts	College	Rnk by Draft Result	06 Recruiting Rnk	09 Final Polls
1741	Florida	1	2	3
1350	Oklahoma	2	7	28
1138	Texas	3	3	2
1117	USC	4	1	21
1106	Alabama	5	18	1
1002	Tennessee	6	24	48
959	Iowa	7	40	7
768	South Florida	8	7	17
763	LSU	9	56	44
758	Utah	10	60	18
743	Penn St	11	6	9
728	Georgia Tech	12	49	13
629	Clemson	13	22	25
610	Oklahoma St	14	16	29
609	Mississippi	15	15	20
576	Virginia Tech	16	31	10
557	Notre Dame	17	5	66
550	Oregon	18	52	11
532	Illinois	19	28	99
524	TCU	20	73	6
508	California	21	23	41
495	Rutgers	22	63	33
494	Nebraska	23	29	14
464	Miami (Fla.)	24	14	19
445	Kentucky	25	34	56
414	UCLA	26	20	58
412	Georgia	27	4	32
393	Northwestern	28	71	40
391	Arizona	29	19	34
359	Michigan	30	9	80

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