Number Crunching: 2009's Biggest Over/Underachievers

Did the national champion Crimson Tide produce as many draft picks as they should have in 2010? O.M. Leung takes a look in today's breakdown of the NFL Draft.

A few days ago, a Linebacker-U.com reader pitched us his analysis of the NFL Draft, and how it could be used to determine College Football's most underachieving and overachieving teams in 2009. Of course, it was really cool stuff, or else you wouldn't be reading about it right now. Without further delay, in our first post of its kind here at Linebacker-U.com, we give you a reader-contributed post...

Now that the NFL draft is over, I crunched some numbers for fun to see how the PROs regarded the development of their “farm teams” – the colleges, versus the final polls, and versus the colleges' 2006 recruiting rankings.

For the Draft Position Rankings: I assigned 255 points for the first overall pick, 254 points for the second overall pick, and so on. Number 255, Mr. Irrelevant, would therefore get 1 point. Just to re-enforce number 255’s irrelevancy, I also assigned 1 point to each of almost 300 undrafted free agents who had been signed for rookie camps. I totaled the points and ranked the 109 colleges with draftees.

For the Draft Round Points: Rank by Round Points: A 1st Rounder gets 7 points, 2nd Rounder gets 6 points … 7th Rounder gets 1 point.

For poll ranking: I used the average rank from the final AP and Coaches’ Polls for the 39 teams that received votes, and used the CBS.com poll for teams beyond the 39.

Position Pts Rnk	Position Pts	College		Round Pts Rnk	Round Pts	College
1	1738	Florida		1	51	Florida
2	1345	Oklahoma		2	38	Oklahoma
3	1135	Texas		3	33	Texas
4	1111	USC		4	33	Alabama
5	1101	Alabama		5	32	USC
6	998	Tennessee		6	30	Tennessee
7	956	Iowa		7	28	Iowa
8	760	South Florida		8	23	Penn St
9	759	LSU		9	22	LSU
10	758	Utah		10	22	Utah
11	740	Penn St		11	21	South Florida
12	727	Georgia Tech		12	21	Georgia Tech
13	625	Clemson		13	18	Clemson
14	607	Oklahoma St		14	18	Oklahoma St
15	604	Mississippi		15	16	Mississippi
16	573	Virginia Tech		16	16	Notre Dame
17	554	Notre Dame		17	16	TCU
18	549	Oregon		18	15	Virginia Tech
19	529	Illinois		19	15	Oregon
20	521	TCU		20	15	California
21	503	California		21	15	Rutgers
22	493	Rutgers		22	14	Illinois
23	491	Nebraska		23	14	Nebraska
24	464	Miami (Fla.)		24	14	Miami (Fla.)
25	441	Kentucky		25	14	Georgia

(Tie-break by Draft Position Points)

If we rank the colleges by taking the average of the final 2009 AP and Coaches Polls, and subtract from that rank the Draft-Position-Rank, then we have:

Polls-Draft Differential
Avg Poll Rnk	College	Draft Position Rk	Differential
1	Alabama	5	4
2	Texas	3	1
3	Florida	1	-2
4	Boise St	52	48
5	Ohio St	62	57
6	TCU	20	14
7	Iowa	7	0
8	Cincinnati	51	43
9	Penn St	11	2
10	Virginia Tech	16	6
11	Oregon	18	7
12	BYU	67	55
13	Georgia Tech	12	-1
14	Nebraska	23	9
15	Pittsburgh	82	67
16	Wisconsin	37	21
17	LSU	9	-8
18	Utah	10	-8
19	Miami (Fla.)	24	5
20	Mississippi	15	-5
21	USC	4	-17
22	Texas Tech	94	72
23	Central Michigan	136	113
24	West Virginia	102	78
25	Clemson	13	-12
26	Oregon St	103	77
27	Navy	107	80
28	Oklahoma	2	-26
29	Oklahoma St	14	-15
30	Stanford	50	20
31	Auburn	32	1
32	Georgia	27	-5
33	Rutgers	22	-11
34	Arizona	29	-5
35	Middle Tenn	97	62
36	Florida St	33	-3
37	Connecticut	66	29
38	Arkansas	77	39
39	Air Force	107	68

One can argue that the colleges with differential close to zero did as well as they should based on talent level as judged by the NFL draft, whereas the colleges with high positive differential overachieved and those with high negatives underachieved in general.

The overachievers in 2009 appeared to be:

Central Michigan, Navy, Air Force, Middle Tenn, BYU, Boise St, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Stanford, TCU

The biggest underachievers in 2009 appeared to be:

Oklahoma, USC, LSU

In evaluating the overachievers and underachievers, obviously perceived recruiting success (or lack of) should be taken into consideration. I looked up Scout.com’s 2006 recruiting ranking, then calculated several rank differentials and came up with a few best and worst lists:

Polls-Draft-Recruiting Breakdown
Good Drafts, Low '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class	Bad Drafts, Good '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class
Louisiana Tech	(4-8)	No. 94	Texas A&M	(6-7)	No. 21
Arkansas St	(4-8)	No. 116	Pittsburgh	(10-3)	No. 11
TCU	(12-1)	No. 73	Oregon St	(8-5)	No. 41
Fresno St	(8-5)	No. 96	Michigan St	(6-7)	No. 43
Utah	(10-3)	No. 60	Ohio St	(11-2)	No. 13
South Florida	(8-5)	No. 56	Arkansas	(8-5)	No. 30
Northwestern	(8-5)	No. 71	West Virginia	(8-5)	No. 56
Rutgers	(9-4)	No. 63	North Carolina St	(5-7)	No. 42
Indiana	(4-8)	No. 79	Iowa St	(7-6)	No. 59
Ohio	(9-5)	No. 103	Boston College	(8-5)	No. 44
Good Poll Finish, Low Draft Rank	2010 Record		Bad Poll Finish, High Draft Rank	2010 Record
West Virginia	(8-5)		Illinois	(3-9)
Oregon St	(8-5)		Maryland	(2-10)
Pittsburgh	(10-3)		Louisiana Tech	(4-8)
Middle Tennessee	(10-3)		Vanderbilt	(2-10)
Ohio St	(11-2)		Michigan	(5-7)
BYU	(11-2)		Notre Dame	(6-6)
Boise St	(14-0)		Syracuse	(4-8)
Houston	(10-4)		Washington	(5-7)
Temple	(9-4)		Arkansas St	(4-8)
Central Michigan	(12-2)		Arizona St	(4-8)
Best Poll Finishes, low '06 Recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class	Worst Poll Finishes, high '06 recruiting	2010 Record	06 Class
Middle Tennessee	(10-4)	No. 111	Maryland	(2-10)	No. 27
Central Michigan	(12-2)	No. 99	Michigan	(5-7)	No. 9
Boise St	(14-0)	No. 78	Illinois	(3-9)	No. 28
TCU	(12-1)	No. 73	Notre Dame	(6-6)	No. 5
Cincinnati	(12-1)	No. 70	Vanderbilt	(2-10)	No. 61
Ohio	(9-5)	No. 103	Arizona St	(4-8)	No. 32
SMU	(8-5)	No. 91	Texas A&M	(6-7)	No. 21
Utah	(10-3)	No. 60	North Carolina St	(5-7)	No. 42
Oregon	(10-3)	No. 52	Washington	(5-7)	No. 35
Troy	(9-4)	No. 89	Syracuse	(4-8)	No. 51

Here's the final breakdown of the data we've presented in this analysis:

Total Draft Pts	College	Rnk by Draft Result	06 Recruiting Rnk	09 Final Polls
1741	Florida	1	2	3
1350	Oklahoma	2	7	28
1138	Texas	3	3	2
1117	USC	4	1	21
1106	Alabama	5	18	1
1002	Tennessee	6	24	48
959	Iowa	7	40	7
768	South Florida	8	7	17
763	LSU	9	56	44
758	Utah	10	60	18
743	Penn St	11	6	9
728	Georgia Tech	12	49	13
629	Clemson	13	22	25
610	Oklahoma St	14	16	29
609	Mississippi	15	15	20
576	Virginia Tech	16	31	10
557	Notre Dame	17	5	66
550	Oregon	18	52	11
532	Illinois	19	28	99
524	TCU	20	73	6
508	California	21	23	41
495	Rutgers	22	63	33
494	Nebraska	23	29	14
464	Miami (Fla.)	24	14	19
445	Kentucky	25	34	56
414	UCLA	26	20	58
412	Georgia	27	4	32
393	Northwestern	28	71	40
391	Arizona	29	19	34
359	Michigan	30	9	80

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Landolt, Wallace sign as free agents

The New York Giants have signed Penn State offensive lineman Dennis Landolt as an undrafted free agent. Rumors had been swirling that he would end up in Washington, but landed with the 'Skins' division rival.

Landolt was an All-Big Ten performer at tackle for the Nittany Lions. Early speculation has Landolt shifting to offensive guard.

A.J. Wallace has been signed by Miami Dolphins as an undrafted free agent. In Miami, he will join first round draft pick Jared Odrick. The highly recruited cornerback out of high school never quite developed into the shutdown corner many had expected. But it's great to hear that he will have his shot at the NFL.

Wallace left Penn State with four career interceptions, three coming his senior season.

Congrats to A.J. and Dennis!

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Redskins sign Daryll Clark as free agent

Former Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark will attend the Washington Redskins mini-camp as an undrafted free agent, news that was confirmed by several media outlets earlier this evening. Clark later tweeted that this was the case, contrary to rumors that he'd been signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers as a free agent there.

Clark was the 2008 and 2009 first-team All-Big Ten quarterback, leading his Nittany Lions to a Big Ten championship and consecutive 11-win seasons, including a New Years Day bowl win over Louisiana State.

Best wishes to Daryll!

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Quarless, Shuler and Hull round out Penn State draft class

Andrew Quarless (10) will be a Green Bay Packer.

While many Penn State fans were enjoying live Nittany Lion football at the Blue-White Game, the final rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft were wrapping up in New York City. It was a very good draft for Penn State, as three more Nittany Lions were taken.

Andrew Quarless was drafted in the fifth round, No. 154 overall, by the Green Bay Packers. Even with all his off-field and maturity problems over the years, he has definitely vindicated himself with a fantastic senior campaign at Penn State, and now as a Green Bay Packer.

Ready to face Quarless as an NFC North rival, Mickey Shuler was selected in round seven, No. 214 overall, by the Minnesota Vikings. This came as a slight surprise, as Shuler never claimed the No. 1 tight end spot at Penn State. But he has great upside, and will be sure to contribute at the next level.

The final Nittany Lion drafted this year was former walk-on Josh Hull. It's a great story of a typical Penn State football player. The St. Louis Rams took Hull with the next-to-last pick, No. 254 overall, in the seventh round. Hull will have a great shot to make the practice team, as he's a hard worker and smart kid.

Word late tonight is that Daryll Clark has been picked up as a free agent. We'll have more on that in a little while. So check back soon.

Congratulations to all the Nittany Lions selected in the 2010 NFL Draft. Good luck, and we know you'll make the Nittany Nation proud!

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Navorro Bowman To The 49ers In Round 3

So, two and a half rounds into the NFL Draft and we now have our third Nittany Lion chosen in Navorro Bowman, who just went to the San Francisco 49ers with the 90th pick in the 3rd round.

I'm not about to fuel a debate about whether Bowman is a 'sleeper pick' for being taken this late in the draft but I will say this: Congrats San Fran, you're getting yourself a bonafide ankle-snapper...just the way Mike Singletary likes it.

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Cowboys draft Sean Lee in Second Round

The Dallas Cowboys traded up to grab Penn State's Sean Lee, with the No. 55 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Lee finished his career with the Nittany Lions having earned All-Big Ten and All-America honors, despite some nagging injuries.

The Cowboys traded with the Eagles to get Lee. His selection in the mid-second round came as sort of a surprise, considering his injuries last season seemed to lower his draft stock to the third or fourth round.

Congratulations, Sean!






*Update: From Tim...

You know, because Sean Lee rhymes with Chong Li and both of them deliver bone-crushing hits

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Dolphins Draft Jared Odrick in First Round

The Miami Dolphins used their 28th pick in tonight's NFL Draft to select Penn State's own Jared Odrick. The senior defensive tackle was named the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Lineman of the Year in 2009.

Odrick came to Penn State as a very highly-touted defensive end, which will bode well for his projected NFL position in Miami. The Dolphins are expected to use Odrick as a defensive end.

Congratulations, Jared!

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2010 NFL Draft, First Round LIVE BLOG

This is our first Live Blog, powered by CoverItLive, here at Linebacker-U.com. We will begin around 7:15 p.m., and go through the final first round selection. Enjoy the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft!



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Coming soon: NFL Draft night Live Blog

Linebacker-U.com will host its first Live Blog, powered by CoverItLive, on Thursday, April 22, beginning at 7:15 p.m. The event will cover the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, and feature your favorite bloggers. There may also be some special guests on board, too. So be sure to set your email reminders right now! And we'll see you on draft night!

(No registration or signup is required to participate or watch this Live Blog, and your email address will not be stored anywhere, here or at CoverItLive.)

Any comments or questions about the upcoming Live Blog, email us at WeAre.LBU[at]gmail[dot]com

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Abbreviated Media Roundup: Penn State's Pro Day

Sean Lee (45) ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at Penn State's Pro Day yesterday.

Here we go, the short-short version...

Richard Scarcella, The Reading Eagle:

Hello, Anthony Morelli. And where've you been?

Morelli was one of 22 former Penn State players who worked out for scouts from all 32 NFL teams. It's been more than two years since he played his last game that counted, the 2007 Alamo Bowl against Texas A&M.

"I'm only 24 years old," he said. "I'm young. I still have a lot in the tank. I just really love the game. There's no quit in me. I'm going to keep going until I exhaust all options."

Bernard Fernandez, Philly.com:

"Did I help myself? Well, I got a lot of positive reviews," Clark said. "The question [the scouts] have been asking is whether I'm consistent enough to play in the NFL. I feel like I answered that question today."

There has been some speculation that the 6-2, 232-pound Clark could follow in the footsteps of one of his mentors, former Penn State quarterback Michael Robinson, who is now a backup running back with the San Francisco 49ers. Clark and his agent, onetime Penn State and NFL wide receiver Chafie Fields, indicated they'd be resistant to a position change, at least for now, as well as to the possibility of playing in the Canadian Football League.

Mike Poorman, StateCollege.com:

If there was a circus atmosphere in TebowhaseverythingtoGainesville, then the sunny day and heightened hopes at Holuba Hall truly made it a Happy Valley. At least before the players were X’ed out.

The former Nittany Lions walked in twos and threes from the Lasch Building -- where their height and weight were recorded and their bench presses were tallied -- to Holuba Hall at around 10:30 in the morning. The majority of the group was smiling, happy, upbeat and a bit antsy. Most chatted easily with the three reporters gathered.

A few, however, already saw the future and it was bleak.

“How many bench presses did you do?” cornerback A.J. Wallace was asked.

Jeff Rice, CDT:

Hull, who ran a disappointing 4.91-second 40 in Indianapolis, was clocked at 4.71 Wednesday.

“That was my main emphasis coming in today, and I knocked it down two tenths of a second,” said the Milheim native, who also bettered his combine numbers in the broad jump and 3-cone drill. “So I was happy with what I did.”

Bowman, about eight pounds heavier (237) than he was when he played in the Capital One Bowl in January, ran a 4.61, down from 4.72 in Indianapolis.

He also set up meetings in the coming weeks with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys. Lee, who ran a 4.74 at the combine, was clocked in the 4.55 range Wednesday.

Bob Flounders, Patriot-News:

PSU tight end Mickey Shuler Jr. spent the last two months training for Wednesday's Pro Day at a performance center in Pensacola, Fla.. He believes he made the most of his one shot and is hoping for some workout invites from NFL teams.

Several former teammates congratulated Shuler after his Wednesday workout, including Bowman. The 6-4, 251-pound Shuler said he ran in the 4.6s, broad-jumped almost 11 feet, was measured at 37 inches in the vertical jump and bench-pressed 225 pounds 28 times. Those aren't good numbers. They are great numbers.

“Not too shabby,'' joked Shuler, an East Pennsboro High School grad.

The 2010 NFL Draft begins in prime time, April 22.

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