Phil Steele stops by LBU to chat Penn State 2010

You've been waiting for this day. An oasis in the vast expanse of the college football off-season, today is the official retail release date of Phil Steele's College Football Preview. And what better way to kick off the day than with a Q&A with the man himself, Phil Steele. So let's get to it...

LBU: The Big Ten's success this past bowl season--two BCS wins, plus two more wins over top-15 teams--tamped down the "Big Ten can't win big games" crowd a bit. You even ranked the Big Ten second-strongest conference following bowl season, behind the SEC. For 2010, you're projecting the Big Ten as the third-best conference, tied with the ACC, behind the SEC again and Big XII. Is the Big Ten capable this year of sustaining the momentum from the bowl season? Or will the doubters have new ammunition by season's end?

Phil: Without a doubt the Big 10 last year had their best season in at least four years and finished strong in the bowl season with four bowl wins over ranked teams, the most of any league. This year I feel the conference can sustain that momentum as they have 3 possible preseason top 10 teams in Ohio St, Iowa and Wisconsin. Plus I think Penn St has a shot at a double digit win season. The Buckeyes are legitimate national title contenders and if the Big 10 has another strong bowl season they could easily finish as high as they did last year.

LBU: You pointed out in this year's Penn State writeup that the Nittany Lions will be the first team ever to face THREE teams--Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State--that won BCS bowls the previous season, and that all three are on the road. You also put Penn State behind all three of those teams to start the year, indicating a probable 0-3 record against them. All that being said, how do you rationalize picking Penn State to finish tied for second place in the Big Ten this year?

Phil: While Iowa does have a more manageable schedule than Penn St with Wisconsin, Ohio St and the Nittany Lions all at home, I think the Hawkeyes could slip up somewhere a long the way in addition to losing the Buckeyes. Iowa has upset Penn St in 5 of the last 8 meetings including back to back years despite being outgained in each game. I have to think sometime that trend could turn around for Penn St (see Michigan series) and remember in 2008 the Nittany Lions won in Columbus and Iowa needed a FG with :01 left to beat them so a win in either venue would not shock me.

Mike Yancich (33) is one of the talented linebackers competing for a spot this fall.

LBU: Penn State loses all three of its linebackers to the NFL in the same year for the first time in recent memory. "Linebacker U" has been known to simply reload at its namesake position, particularly the last few years. But how big of a problem could the linebacker position pose for this year's Penn State defense overall, especially with potent offenses like Alabama and Ohio State on the slate?

Phil: While the Linebacker unit is naturally less experienced than a year ago I do not think it will be a huge problem for them for a couple of reasons. #1 they have a great system with great coaches that has allowed players to step right in and fill the void quickly. #2 they have recruited the position very well. Despite the losses this year the Lions still have TEN VHT’s in the three deep! Also since 2004 they have held their opponents to under 310 ypg and 18 ppg each year and there is no reason to believe that the trend won’t continue. I also feel that after a couple of years of having injury problems at the position, they probably will be healthier this year and while less experienced they will have one of the best LB units in the Big 10 again by the end of the year.

LBU: Penn State returns four of five starters on the offensive line. However, two or more will likely end up at different positions this fall than they played last season. Yet, you still wrote that this year's line could be stronger than the 2009 edition. More than a few readers are sure to raise an eyebrow to that one. With so much uncertainty remaining along the line, how do you justify calling for improved line play in 2010?

Phil: When I write my position write ups I like to look at how each position did in past years and compare it to what the situation is heading into this season. Last year they had to replace three starters including the Rimington Award winner, a 3rd TM AA G and a 1st TM B10 LT. They did shuffle the OL at times and the numbers only dropped to 170 ypg rush (4.7) with 17 sks (4.3%). This year I think Wisniewski goes back to his more natural position and he is one of the best in America. With four starters back, I just feel that they will improve upon last year’s numbers with added emphasis on their run game and you certainly cannot question the talent at all of the positions.

LBU: What's the single biggest "land mine" game on Penn State's schedule this season? Northwestern? Illinois? Or (gasp!) Temple?!

Phil: All three games could be trouble for Penn St as Temple is my pick to win the MAC this year and the Nittany Lions have Iowa on deck. However Penn St is 27-0 against Temple since 1952 and they have outgained the Owls by 268 ypg the last four years including two shutouts! Illinois follows the Iowa game so they could be in letdown mode. However, it is homecoming and the Lions have a bye on deck. That leaves us with Northwestern which is the classic “sandwich” game between Michigan and a road game at Ohio St. Last year’s game was very misleading as Northwestern led 13-10 at halftime and it was tied going into the 4Q before Penn St scored 3 TD’s in 3:40 to win 34-13. Also the Wildcats seem to win at least one game a year on the road as a big underdog. In 2005, they beat #22 Michigan St 49-14. In 2006, they beat Iowa 21-7 as a 20 pt dog! In 2007, they again beat Michigan St on the road 48-41 (+16). Two years ago they beat Iowa, Michigan and #20 Minnesota all on the road! Last year they beat #8 Iowa (Stanzi hurt) so I think Wildcats could definitely be Penn St’s “land mine” game in 2010.

For more info on Phil's preview, and year-round college football coverage, visit PhilSteele.com.

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LBU Exclusive: Reviewing Phil Steele's 2010 Preview

There aren't many college football preview magazines that can boast quite like Phil Steele's. The 328-page (no more, no less, every year) annual Bible of the collegiate gridiron may sit on the same shelves as other preview magazines, but no early-summer shopping spree would be complete without forking out the modest $8.95 for the pages upon pages of Phil's patented shorthand, whacky abbreviations, and more fine print than a sub-prime mortgage.

Today you'll get an exclusive sneak peek into Phil Steele's 2010 College Football Preview. Specifically, our review will be 99 percent Penn State, but you'll get a few Big Ten and national highlights, too. So enough with the fluff, let's dive in!

Bowl Prediction

Penn State is slated for a repeat visit to the Capital One Bowl, this time to square off with the Auburn Tigers. The game would be a rematch of the two teams, who faced each other in the 2003 Captial One Bowl. Auburn came into that game ranked No. 22, while the Nittany Lions were favored with a No. 10 ranking. The Tigers upset the Lions, 13-9. Penn State's offense kicked field goals instead of touchdowns, while Auburn's offense rallied from a 6-0 half-time deficit, led by eventual top-10 draft picks Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Jason Campbell.

Penn State is 2-0 against the SEC since that game, while Auburn is 2-1 versus the Big Ten.

Individual Position Rankings

Some of the highest-ranked Nittany Lions are on the offensive side of the ball. Evan Royster is listed as the No. 4 overall running back for 2010, while Stefen Wisniewski is the No. 1 guard in the nation. Derek Moye is the only Nittany Lion receiver to make the top-76 in this year's preview, while Joe Suhey comes in as the No. 15 fullback. Penn State does not have a quarterback, offensive tackle, center, or tight end listed in this year's rankings. But for those of you out there who care, Penn State transfer Pat Devlin, now Delaware's starting quarterback, is ranked No. 21.

On defense, the Nittany Lions don't have a particularly strong showing this year, considering the star-power in previous editions. For the first time in years, Penn State has fewer than four defensive linemen ranked for 2010. Jack Crawford is at a solid No. 23 among defensive ends. Ollie Ogbu and, somewhat surprisingly, Devon Still are ranked No. 19 and No. 59, respectively. No Nittany Lion inside linebackers are ranked this year, but No. 32 Bani Gbaydu and No. 74 Nate Stupar are on the outside linebacker rankings. In the secondary, D'Anton Lynn is listed as the No. 56 cornerback, while Nick Sukay fills in the No. 18 strong safety spot.

Penn State does not have a single special teams player ranked by Phil for 2010.

National Unit Rankings

Stephfon Green is just one of Penn State's dynamic running backs. Phil Steele has the Nittany Lions' ground game as one of the best in the nation going into this season.

As you might expect, Penn State's quarterbacks unit took a big hit with the loss of Daryll Clark--the unit does not make the list of top QB units this year.

The running backs, however, do make the cut. Evan Royster will lead the unit that Phil ranks as the No. 7 overall nationally. Phil likes the return of Royster, along with Stephfon Green, and the successful rehab of Brandon Beachum's ACL. Joe Suhey plays a factor, while the freshmen like Silas Redd and Curtis Dukes aren't mentioned, probably because Redd should redshirt this season and Dukes has three guys ahead of him.

Phil usually picks out about 15 teams per unit ranking, giving a small write-up to each of the top-15. The units outside the top-15 are listed, but not given any sort of explanation. Two Penn State units that fit the latter category are the receivers and offensive line, coming in at No. 25 and No. 20, respectively among 34 teams in each group.

Defensively, Penn State's defensive line comes in at No. 9 mostly due to its ability to completely reload every year, even after heavy losses to the draft and graduation. Phil points out that the unit returns more starts (31) and more sacks (18.5) than it did going into 2009.

When a team replaces all three NFL-bound linebackers, it's going to hurt. But with Penn State, the fall wasn't so far as expected. Linebacker U's namesake unit sits comfortably at No. 27 for 2010.

Like the defensive line ranking, Penn State's secondary got into Phil's top-15--just barely, at No. 15--mostly on merit, and its ability to reload each off-season.

With virtually no stability on special teams (besides Colin Wagner's return), Penn State didn't make the cut for any ranking in this year's preview.

National Top-25, All-Americans, and All-Big Ten

All of this (PSU is No. 18, here's the All-Americans and All-Big Ten teams) has been leaked so far. Some of it has come from the media, while some has come from Phil's site. So I won't waste time on them here.

Penn State's Title Chances

Phil calls the Nittany Lions a "legit Big Ten contender" despite all the losses and a tough schedule. Penn State is projected to tie for second with Iowa (more on the overall Big Ten race in a minute). While Penn State is supposed to technically finish second, Phil probably expects another loss to the Hawkeyes. Penn State is listed below Iowa in the standings.

Penn State, in Brief...

With all the "VHT" (very highly-touted) players on Penn State's roster these days, Phil has a tough time picking on anything but experience. The quarterback position should pose the most problems, while the abysmal special teams from a year ago should improve, according to Phil's forecast.

The schedule is a monster in Phil's analysis. Not only does he harp continuously on Penn State's dates with three BCS Bowl Game winners, but overall Phil jacked up the Lions' strength of schedule by 57 spots (!), from No. 73 in 2009 to No. 16 for 2010. He bases his rankings on strength of the teams for this year, not from last year.

Depth Charting

Phil Steele projects that DeOn'Tae Pannell (50) will move out to left tackle this season. (Photo: Mike Pettigano)

Phil projects the fall depth charts for each team, but even his predictions aren't far off from our very own current depth chart following spring practice. The only big changes (again, because he does the fall depth chart), is that Johnnie Troutman returns to left guard, while DeOn'Tae Pannell moves out to left tackle.

Michael Mauti replaces Chris Colasanti at middle linebacker. This might not happen, since Joe Paterno seems set on giving the senior (Colasanti) a chance over the younger player (Mauti). On special teams, Phil thinks Anthony Fera will emerge from Paterno's dog house, and take over at punter.

Everything else is the same as our depth chart.

Projected Stats for 2010

You might ask how he can predict actual statistics for this season. Don't. Just let it be. It's Phil Steele, and he can do what he pleases. For this season, Phil projects the top-12 leaders in all major categories--rush offense, pass offense, scoring offense, total offense; rush defense, pass defense, scoring defense, total defense.

Penn State is projected to field the No. 2 scoring defense for 2010, while also coming in as the projected No. 7 rush defense, the projected No. 6 pass defense, and the No. 5 total defense (total yardage allowed) in college football.

Phil also projects the "most improved" teams in each of those categories. The Nittany Lions' are projected to have the No. 3 most improved rushing game for 2010. That's not a surprise, considering what the offensive game plan will be this season, and a much more experienced offensive line.

Heisman

Evan Royster is listed as a contender, which is Phil's second level of players vying for the honor this year. While Royster could be in the running for a few minutes this season, don't count on anything beyond that. It's not a matter of talent or production, but he will be going up against a loaded field, a field that's also playing with a deck stacked against Royster. Still, it's nice to see a Penn Stater on the list at all.

The Big Ten Overall

I won't spend much time on this, as the other fine Big Ten blogs can fend for themselves. But since I have it right in front of me, I can't bare to leave out some of the bigger projections Phil makes for this year's Big Ten Title Race.

The projected final standings are:

1. Ohio State
2(t). Iowa
2(t). Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5(t). Michigan State
5(t). Michigan
7. Northwestern
8. Illinois
9. Purdue
10(t). Indiana
10(t). Minnesota

Overall Impressions

Phil Steele's College Football Preview never disappoints. Even when your team isn't ranked so high, or projected to do so well, there is a sort of solace gained from reading such a grounded and detailed explanation of "why" each football season will play out the way it should. So be sure to go out and get yours this week. The magazine hits the shelves on June 8, and should be available at your local book store, or supermarket magazine aisle. Or, you could just visit PhilSteele.com to order one directly to your home.

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Penn State Ranked 18th In Phil Steele's Top 25: Commence Bitch-Fest

Special thanks go out to ESPN.com's senior college football writer Pat Forde. As an officially credentialed member of the media, Forde received an advanced copy of Phil Steele's magazine (officially due on bookshelves June 8th) and was kind enough to leak Phil's Top 25 list via his own twitter page

Phil's Top 10: 1. Oklahoma; 2. Ohio State; 3. Alabama; 4. TCU; 5. Nebraska; 6. Boise State; 7. Florida; 8. USC; 9. Miami; 10. Oregon.

Rest of Top 25: 11. Texas 12. UNC 13. VT 14. Iowa 15. Aub 16. ND 17. Ark 18. Penn St. 19. UGA 20. FSU 21. S. Car. 22. WVU 23. Wisc 24. Hou. 25. Arizona

Have to say, Oklahoma holding the top spot as opposed to OSU or Alabama is rather shocking given all the key players the Sooners have lost (including stud QB Sam Bradford, and tight end Jermaine Gresham). It's also shocking to see Boise State out of the Top 5 when every other preseason poll I've seen has the Broncos ranked as such. Unfortunately, none of us here at LBU are with the 'in' crowd, so we'll have to wait for another week and a half like everybody else to get a copy and learn about Phil's rationale behind such picks.

Then of course, you have the total snubbing of PSU at 18th...Actually, I don't think it's a snubbing at all, but you can make yourself instant money by having someone you know bet against such idiotic sentiments being posted in Message Board Land.

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Phil Steele Releases His Preseason All-Big Ten: Which Lions made the Cut?

It's no secret here at LBU that our love of everything Phil Steele borders on that of teeny-bopping Justin Bieber fanaticism*. Thus, when Steele recently released his Preseason All-Big Ten Team on his website, it was a godsend for us during this 'dead period' that plagues the college sports blogosphere. It sure beats trying to invent ways to preview the upcoming season that you think are original and clever before you realize that every other blog has done a post at some point in time comparing football programs to Simpsons characters.

Making the 1st team (to nobody's surprise) were Preseason All-Americans running back Evan Royster and offensive guard Stefen Wisniewski. Wide receiver Derek Moye and defensive tackle Ollie Ogbu helped to comprise the 2nd team, while the 3rd Team was anchored by defensive end Jack Crawford and safety Nick Sukay. Rounding out the list on the 4th team were linebacker Bani Gbadyu and wide receiver Graham Zug.

Look, I realize there isn't a whole lot separating 3rd and 4th team picks (hardly any college football publication goes as deep with preseason all-conference picks) but Zug got snubbed, period. Yes, Derek Moye led the team in receptions (48) and receiving yards (785) and deservedly earned 2nd team honors but you know who was right behind him in those categories? That's right, Graham Zug. And the stats were fairly close as well (46 catches, 600 yards), not to mention Zug led the team in touchdown receptions last season with seven to Moye's six.

Fourth team? FOURTH F*CKING TEAM?! I'll show you my 'fourth team...' ZUG SMASH!

Anyone who watched Penn State play last year saw how critical Zug was to the receiving corps: Sure, he wasn't the most dazzling, barn-burning receiver out there, but he sure knew how to get open and make the catch with his hands of glue. At the very least, Zug deserved to be named to the 3rd team given how critical he was to the receiving corps last year. Speaking of which, Michigan State's Keith Nichol is listed as a 3rd team receiver ahead of Zug...and he's an effing quarterback. I really hope this was merely a misprint on Phil's part and was meant to include perhaps, MSU receiver Keshawn Martin (1st team punt/kick returner) instead.

Other notable picks on Phil's list include Terrelle Pryor being named 1st team QB over Iowa's Ricky Stanzi. The combination of Pryor's maturation as a true dual-threat QB along with Iowa's patented Stanziballs gave the slight edge to Pryor. Indiana QB Ben Chappell failed to crack the list, as Michigan State's Kirk Cousins (3rd team) and Scott Tolzien (4th team) rounded out the quarterbacks. Considering how much love is given to IU's receivers Tandon Doss (1st team) and Darius Willis (3rd team), this could easily be the second-worst snubbing on the list.

As with any preseason list, this will be an afterthought come September when the games actually start and the only results that matter are those that occur on the field as opposed to a keyboard. For the next few months though, we've got ourselves something to hold us over...

* However, it has nothing to do with the fact that Mike also writes for PhilSteele.com

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Evan Royster and Stefen Wisniewski named All-America by Phil Steele

Stefen Wisniewski (top) and Evan Royster (bottom) look to lead a powerful Nittany Lions ground game in 2010.

Penn State senior running back Evan Royster, and senior offensive lineman Stefen Wisnewski have been named 2010 All-Americans by Phil Steele.

GoPSUSports.com:

Wisniewski earned third team All-America and first team All-Big Ten accolades in 2009, starting all 13 games at center for the Nittany Lions. He moved back to guard during spring practice, where he started 12 games in 2008, helping Penn State win the Big Ten Championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl.

A starter in 25 of 26 games the past two seasons, Wisniewski is on the preliminary Watch List for the 41st Rotary Lombardi Award...

Royster has been one of the nation's premier tailbacks the past two seasons, rushing for 1,169 yards in 2009 to earn first team All-Big Ten accolades. In 2008, he was among 10 semifinalists for the Doak Walker Award and earned second team all-conference accolades after gaining 1,236 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns.

I won't say that I'm surprised that these are the only two Nittany Lions to make the All-America teams, especially with so many of the "stars" gone from the last two seasons. But depending on how the offense develops, and a grossly under-rated defense this year, I would expect a few more names than just these two to gain recognition by the end of the season.

For now, though, congratulations to Evan and Stefen. It should be a fun year for Penn State's running game.

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Evan Royster on Phil Steele's Cover

Penn State's all-America candidate Evan Royster will grace the cover of Phil Steele's 2010 East Coast preview magazine. The rising senior running back is 481 yards short of breaking the Nittany Lions' career rushing record, currently held by Curt Warner (1982).

Sean Lee was selected for the 2009 East Coast regional cover.

Steele's 328-page publication was ranked by Stassen.com as the No. 1 most-accurate preseason magazine over the last ten years.

The 2010 edition will hit news stands on June 8. Last year's edition cost $8.95, and was available almost everywhere. I purchased mine at Wegmans.

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PSU at the bottom of Lindy's and Athlon Top 25's

This is what I get for waiting to post this. You've now probably already read about this, but here it is anyway...

Rnk	Lindy's	Athlon
1	Alabama	TBA
2	Boise State	TBA
3	Ohio State	TBA
4	Texas	TBA
5	Florida	TBA
6	Wisconsin	TBA
7	TCU	TBA
8	Virginia Tech	TBA
9	Oklahoma	TBA
10	Iowa	TBA
11	Nebraska	TBA
12	USC	TBA
13	North Carolina	TBA
14	Pittsburgh	TBA
15	Oregon	TBA
16	Arkansas	Wisconsin
17	Georgia Tech	Arkansas
18	LSU	Pittsburgh
19	West Virginia	North Carolina
20	Miami	Connecticut
21	Georgia	Missouri
22	Cincinnati	Auburn
23	Houston	Penn State
24	Penn State	LSU
25	Utah	Clemson

Here it comes, folks. The preview magazines are ramping up their marketing blitz prior to their big release week around June 1 each year. One of the best ways to generate buzz is to release, either in their entirety or in parts, the preseason top 25 rankings that will be featured in the actual magazines. It's a great teaser for most college football fans.

The problem with these magazines--among so many others--is that they hit stores in early summer, even though much can change in the two months before actual kickoff. But their business model has worked, and continues to work, for one major reason: By early summer--after recruiting dies down, spring practice is done, and the spring games weren't quite as exciting as we all though they would be--fans are so incredibly parched for the real season to start, $8.50 or so is nothing compared to the thirst-quenching splash of college football it can buy.

Now we get our first taste, as Lindy's top 25 was leaked out yesterday (purposely?), yet still remains absent from the Lindy's site. I figured since Lindy's made the biggest (read:first) splash of the magazine season, it'd be good to see if any other preview mags had their rankings out. Turns out, Athlon was the only one, but even they only had part of the top 25, as it looks like they will be releasing one new top-25 team each day... or something like that.

Also, Lindy's preseason All-America teams named Penn State's senior offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski to the first team. So take that for what it's worth.

But I think both rankings for Penn State are a bit low, despite my blatant homerism here. I'll give you that there are questions about this team, but are they any worse than, say, the questions on Alabama's defense? This will all get worked out as the summer goes on, or at least until Phil Steele* releases his magazine and totally PWNS every other college football preview annual on the rack.

*Disclaimer: I do write for PhilSteele.com

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